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An estimated range of values which is likely to include an unknown population parameter. The 95% (p-value = .05) and 99% (p-value = .01) confidence intervals are the most commonly used.

If an estimated annual percentage change (APC) is -2.44 with a 95% confidence interval of (-2.83, -2.05), then we are 95% confident that the actual APC is between a decrease of -2.83% and a decrease of 2.05%. Inversely, there is still a 5% chance that the actual APC is not in the confidence interval (between the upper and lower confidence limits).

- Browse Related Terms: Age-Conditional Risk, Annual Percent Change (APC), Confidence Interval, Incidence Rate, Joinpoint, Joinpoint Software, Lifetime Risk, Percent Change, Probability, Probability of Developing Cancer, Probability of Dying of Cancer, Spatial Correlation, statistically significant, Trends Over Time