Index of Leading Economic Indicators

This monthly composite of ten economic measurements was developed to track and help forecast changing patterns in the economy. It is compiled by The Conference Board, a business research group.

The components are adjusted from time to time to help improve the accuracy of the index. In the past, it has successfully predicted major downturns, although it has also warned of some that did not materialize.

Consumer-related components include the number of building permits issued, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods, and the index of consumer expectations.

Financial components include stock prices of 500 common stocks, the real money supply, and the interest rate spread.

Business-related components include the average work week in the manufacturing sector, average initial claims for unemployment benefits, nondefense plant and equipment orders, and vendor perfomance, which reflects how quickly companies receive deliveries from suppliers.